How to check a stock influencer’s win rate
To check a stock influencer's win rate before following their picks, look at their complete, dated record of calls and what each stock did afterwards, not at the wins they choose to show. On Opinion Alpha you can do that for free: every tracked influencer has a page with all of their public stock calls, each linked to the video or post it came from, a win rate, and the simulated return of following them compared with the S&P 500.
Here are five checks, in the order that saves the most time.
1. Find the whole record, not the highlights
A screenshot of a winning trade proves one trade. What you need is every call: the ticker, the direction, the date, and the words used. Search the influencers page for the person. If they are tracked, their page lists every stock opinion extracted from their public videos and posts. If they are not, you can suggest them with a free account.
2. Check a few calls against the source
Open three or four opinions and follow the source link; for videos it goes to the moment it was said. You are checking two things: that the call is recorded the way it was made, and how firm it really was. "I bought more today" and "I'd keep an eye on it" are not the same call, and each opinion is labelled as explicit, leaning or conditional for that reason.
3. Read the win rate together with the number of calls and the return
Win rate is the share of completed simulated positions that ended with a positive return. On its own it misleads in two ways. A rate from eight calls says little; look at the number of calls next to it. And many small wins can sit beside a few large losses, so read it with the return and the excess return over SPY. Someone can be right 65% of the time and still trail the index.
4. See whether they are ever bearish
In a rising market, an influencer who is bullish on everything looks skilled. The page shows how many of their opinions are positive. If almost all are, their record tells you about the market more than about them. The long-short view, which also shorts their bearish calls, shows whether their negative calls carry information.
5. Look at more than one period
A strong last month can hide a weak year. Switch the period on the influencer's page or on the leaderboard; periods run from one week to two years, and the largest drop along the way (drawdown) is shown beside the return. A free account covers periods up to three months; longer ones are part of Pro.
What this cannot tell you
These are simulations of following public statements under fixed rules, described on the methodology page. They are not the influencer's real trades, they ignore costs and taxes, and a good past record does not make the next call right. An influencer's record also says nothing about whether they are licensed to give advice: in the US you can look up registered advisers and brokers on Investor.gov and FINRA BrokerCheck. None of this is investment advice.